While most of us are naturally more comfortable hearing information which confirms our current beliefs, the practice of seeking contrary information is what enables us to be more informed and make better decisions.However, this seemingly natural practice is not the norm. Instead, we prefer to be told what we already know or believe, which is more technically termed "confirmation bias."Confirmation bias is the tendency to pursue and embrace information that matches our existing beliefs. We tend to seek out and enjoy people who write or say exactly what we think. We gravitate toward these sources not for information but for confirmation!The trouble with confirmation bias begins when it gets in the way of seeking out facts; and even more alarming is the fact that it is especially hazardous to highly-experienced and successful individuals. Consider that the "more we know" the more likely it is that we will be able to uncover supporting research or data.This inclination to look for supportive data can easily lead us to serious mistakes. Without a conscientious effort to avoid confirmation bias, many small choices - all valid on their own - tend to be combined to support our initial opinions. Consequently, we think we are making data-driven decisions, but we are really collecting decision-driven data.In theory, the explosion of information would lead to more and better information, more nuanced understanding, and less bias, but as Nate Silver points out in the Introduction to his book, The Signal and the Noise, we face danger whenever the quantity of information grows faster than our ability to fairly and effectively process it. We must choose what information to access and to credit, and that's when our biases take over.If these facts have prompted you to reconsider your approach to research and decision-making, here are three things that can help you avoid confirmation bias:- Recognize the bias and remind yourself to look for it in your decisions and analyses. Remind yourself that the authors of everything you read (including this article) are making a point that is supported by the data they present, but is not necessarily by data they do not present - and in fact may not even have seen if they did not look hard enough for contrary data. Remind yourself that the well-intentioned people providing you with analysis and recommendations are also subject to confirmation bias. Ask for contrary data.
- Consistently ask yourself "what else could it be?" Think creatively about alternative explanations and alternative solutions. Explore the whole feasible set, if possible.
- Encourage others to express contrary views and ideas. Aggressively seek out and try to understand contrarian views. For many people, the first impulse is to refute contrarian views and argue our own. But the best decisions are likely to be made by those who "seek first to understand rather than be understood."
If you value the differences in people, the differences will produce value. Or stated a different way, "Can you prove yourself wrong?"Paul C. Donehue is a Senior Associate at Conway Management Company, a global consulting firm specializing in continuous process improvement and helping organizations of all types and sizes
While most of us are naturally more comfortable hearing information which confirms our current beliefs, the practice of seeking contrary information is what enables us to be more informed and make better decisions.
However, this seemingly natural practice is not the norm. Instead, we prefer to be told what we already know or believe, which is more technically termed "confirmation bias."
Confirmation bias is the tendency to pursue and embrace information that matches our existing beliefs. We tend to seek out and enjoy people who write or say exactly what we think. We gravitate toward these sources not for information but for confirmation!
The trouble with confirmation bias begins when it gets in the way of seeking out facts; and even more alarming is the fact that it is especially hazardous to highly-experienced and successful individuals. Consider that the "more we know" the more likely it is that we will be able to uncover supporting research or data.
This inclination to look for supportive data can easily lead us to serious mistakes. Without a conscientious effort to avoid confirmation bias, many small choices - all valid on their own - tend to be combined to support our initial opinions. Consequently, we think we are making data-driven decisions, but we are really collecting decision-driven data.
In theory, the explosion of information would lead to more and better information, more nuanced understanding, and less bias, but as Nate Silver points out in the Introduction to his book, The Signal and the Noise, we face danger whenever the quantity of information grows faster than our ability to fairly and effectively process it. We must choose what information to access and to credit, and that's when our biases take over.
If these facts have prompted you to reconsider your approach to research and decision-making, here are three things that can help you avoid confirmation bias:
- Recognize the bias and remind yourself to look for it in your decisions and analyses. Remind yourself that the authors of everything you read (including this article) are making a point that is supported by the data they present, but is not necessarily by data they do not present - and in fact may not even have seen if they did not look hard enough for contrary data. Remind yourself that the well-intentioned people providing you with analysis and recommendations are also subject to confirmation bias. Ask for contrary data.
- Consistently ask yourself "what else could it be?" Think creatively about alternative explanations and alternative solutions. Explore the whole feasible set, if possible.
- Encourage others to express contrary views and ideas. Aggressively seek out and try to understand contrarian views. For many people, the first impulse is to refute contrarian views and argue our own. But the best decisions are likely to be made by those who "seek first to understand rather than be understood."
If you value the differences in people, the differences will produce value. Or stated a different way, "Can you prove yourself wrong?"
Paul C. Donehue is a Senior Associate at Conway Management Company, a global consulting firm specializing in continuous process improvement and helping organizations of all types and sizes
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